A Preliminary Analysis of Disturbance Tracksover the Mediterranean Basin     

S. Karas  A. Zangvil 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1999,64(3-4):239-248

Summary  The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in the eastern Mediterranean are also made. Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999  相似文献   

Estimating coastal flood hazard of Tossa de Mar,Spain: a combined model – data interviews approach     

Hernandez-Mora  Marina  Meseguer-Ruiz  Oliver  Karas  Cyrus  Lambert  Fabrice 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(3):2153-2171

Natural Hazards - Human settlements in coastal areas are highly vulnerable to extreme events, especially in the Mediterranean area, which houses a large number of tourists during the summer and...  相似文献   

A relativistically smeared spectrum in the neutron star X-ray binary 4U 1705−44: looking at the inner accretion disc with X-ray spectroscopy     

T. Di Salvo  A. D'Aí  R. Iaria  L. Burderi  M. Dov&#;iak  V. Karas  G. Matt  A. Papitto  S. Piraino  A. Riggio  N. R. Robba  A. Santangelo 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(4):2022-2027

Iron emission lines at 6.4–6.97 keV, identified with fluorescent Kα transitions, are among the strongest discrete features in the X-ray band. These are therefore one of the most powerful probes to infer the properties of the plasma in the innermost part of the accretion disc around a compact object. In this paper, we present a recent XMM–Newton observation of the X-ray burster 4U 1705−44, where we clearly detect a relativistically smeared iron line at about 6.7 keV, testifying with high statistical significance that the line profile is distorted by high-velocity motion in the accretion disc. As expected from disc reflection models, we also find a significant absorption edge at about 8.3 keV; this feature appears to be smeared, and is compatible with being produced in the same region where the iron line is produced. From the line profile, we derive the physical parameters of the inner accretion disc with large precision. The line is identified with the Kα transition of highly ionized iron, Fe  xxv , the inner disc radius is   R _in= 14 ± 2  R _g  (where R _g is the Gravitational radius,   GM / c ²  ), the emissivity dependence from the disc radius is   r ^{−2.27±0.08}  , the inclination angle with respect to the line of sight is   i = 39°± 1°  . Finally, the XMM–Newton spectrum shows evidences of other low-energy emission lines, which again appear broad and their profiles are compatible with being produced in the same region where the iron line is produced.  相似文献   

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jae Edmonds  Steven J. Smith  Kate V. Calvin  Joseph Karas  Mikiko Kainuma  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Keywan Riahi  Bas J. van Ruijven  Rob Swart  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):635-642

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.  相似文献   

On the role of strong gravity in polarization from scattering of light in relativistic flows     

J. Horák  V. Karas 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(3):813-826

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A cloud model of active galactic nuclei: the iron Kα line diagnostics     

V. Karas  B. Czerny  A. Abrassart  M. A. Abramowicz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,318(2):547-560

The origin and the profile of the iron K α line from active galactic nuclei are studied. The model with a quasi-spherical distribution of clouds around a compact galactic nucleus is explored, in which the intrinsic spectral feature around 6–7 keV is substantially affected by Comptonization of primary X-rays. The predicted spectral profiles are influenced mainly by the motion of the clouds in the strong gravitational field of the centre, and by the orientation of the source with respect to the observer. The case of the Seyfert galaxy MCG–6-30-15 is examined in more detail and free parameters of the model are determined. A robust result is obtained: acceptable fits to the observed profile correspond to a spherical distribution of the clouds with strong self-obscuration effects and with a rather high value of ionization parameter. This is a different situation from that considered in the model of a cold illuminated disc. Nevertheless, geometrically flat (disc-type) configurations are not rejected.  相似文献   

Magnetic flares in Active Galactic Nuclei: modeling the iron Kα line     

R. W. Goosmann  B. Czerny  M. Mouchet  V. Karas  M. Dov iak  G. Ponti  A. Ra&#x;ska  A.‐M. Dumont 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2006,327(10):977-980

The X‐ray spectra of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are complex and vary rapidly in time as seen in recent observations. Magnetic flares above the accretion disk can account for the extreme variability of AGN. They also explain the observed iron Kα fluorescence lines. We present radiative transfer modeling of the X‐ray reflection due to emission from magnetic flares close to the marginally stable orbit. The hard X‐ray primary radiation coming from the flare source illuminates the accretion disk. A Compton reflection/reprocessed component coming from the disk surface is computed for different emission directions. We assume that the density structure remains adjusted to the hydrostatic equilibrium without external illumination because the flare duration is only a quarter‐orbit. The model takes into account the variations of the incident radiation across the hot spot underneath the flare source. The integrated spectrum seen by a distant observer is computed for flares at different orbital phases close to the marginally stable orbit of a Schwarzschild black hole and of a maximally rotating Kerr black hole. The calculations include relativistic and Doppler corrections of the spectra using a ray tracing technique. We explore the practical possibilities to map out the azimuthal irradiation pattern of the inner accretion disks and conclude that the next generation of X‐ray satellites should reveal this structure from iron Kα line profiles and X‐ray lightcurves. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Power spectra from ‘spotted’ accretion discs     

T. Pech ek  M. Dov iak  V. Karas 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2006,327(10):957-960

We are carrying out a project to calculate power spectra of variability, assuming a model of a ‘spotted’ accretion disc near a black hole. We consider relativistic effects that change photon energy and produce light‐bending and time‐delays acting on the X‐ray signal received by an observer. We assume that the life‐time and the intrinsic emissivity of individual.aring events are described in terms of a simple stochastic process. This allows us to give approximate analytical formulae and compare them with numerical computations. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Alternative nursery habitat for estuarine associated marine fish during prolonged closure of the St Lucia estuary,South Africa     

Leon Vivier  Digby P. Cyrus 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

The Mfolozi estuary, located on the east coast of South Africa, was historically directly linked to the adjacent St Lucia estuarine system, the largest estuarine system in Africa and a World Heritage Site. The Mfolozi used to be the main feeder system to maintain lake levels in St Lucia, but increased siltation from sugar cane farming in the Mfolozi floodplain led to artificial separation of the two systems in 1950. Reduced freshwater inflow due to drought conditions caused the St Lucia mouth to remain closed from June 2002 to present, coinciding with low lake levels and hypersaline conditions, except for a brief period during 2007 after the St Lucia mouth breached. These conditions led to disruption of larval recruitment into the system and major changes in biotic communities. Due to the importance of the St Lucia – Mfolozi System link, a study was initiated in 2007 on the fish community of the Mfolozi system, which was sampled using seine and gill nets. The 48 species recorded were dominated by juveniles of marine spawners, particularly Leiognathus equula and Valamugil cunnesius and the estuarine spawners Ambassis dussumieri and Ambassis natalensis. Estuarine dependent marine spawning species formed 68% of both the species numbers and CPUE, an indication of the regional importance of the Mfolozi estuary as an alternate refuge for juvenile marine fish during periods when the St Lucia system remained closed. Post-larval recruits of marine spawning species were particularly abundant, but low zoobenthic densities caused a rapid decline in numbers of benthic feeders shortly after their recruitment into the system. The importance of the Mfolozi estuary in maintaining marine brood stocks of estuarine dependent marine fish is discussed with particular reference to estuarine degradation and the ecological integrity of the St Lucia system.  相似文献   

Book reviews     

V. Karas  Attila Mészáros 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1991,182(2):337-339

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